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2/18 - Weekly Roundup: Tech positioning, housing, and 2018 redux?

April 8, 2022

I’m going to keep it brief this week ahead of the long weekend as little of interest crossed my desk, liquidity remains abysmal, and I have little value to add on the geopolitical tensions dominating headlines.  One worthwhile read on the week was BAML’s Global Fund Managers Survey which is always a useful gauge of sentiment.  One thing I found interesting (and have seen republished a number of times) is current Tech positioning:

But despite this dramatic shift in positioning, the sector is still viewed as crowded which could remain an overhang:

The one place I’m tempted to take the other side of consensus is with respect to the yield curve where expectations are both highly mean reverting and highly autocorrelated:

In that vein, there’s been a lot of ink spilled across both the financial media and the sell-side with respect to what will happen to housing demand as the Fed embarks on this hiking cycle.  Almost all of it is forecasting significant demand destruction as mortgage rates climb back towards 2019 levels but the data continues to fly in the face of those expectations:

And there’s still significant supply impacts as well:

I’ve seen the 2018 analogy make the rounds lately:

And if there’s going to be a coming growth scare, I imagine it will be precipitated by a roll over in this unique inventory cycle: